Electric Bike Use in China and Their Impacts on the Environment, Safety, Mobility and Accessibility

! Chinese! cities! have! a! long! legacy! of! bicycle! use! due! to! relatively! low! incomes,! dense! urban! development,! and! short! trip! lengths.! Because! of! tremendous! economic! growth! resulting! in! increased! motorization! and! spatial! expansion! of! cities,! trips! are! becoming! longer! and! more! difficult!to!make!by!bicycle.!As!a!result,!electric!powered!two"wheelers!have!risen!in!popularity! over! the! past! five! years.! Touted! as! environmentally! friendly! vehicles,! they! are! capable! of! traveling!40"50!kilometers!on!a!single!charge!and!emit!zero!tailpipe!emissions.!However,!many! cities! are! banning! electric! two"wheelers! from! city! streets,! citing! safety! and! environmental! problems.!They!do!have!significant!environmental!impacts!because!they!use!lead!acid!batteries! and!electricity,!which! is!predominantly!generated! from!coal!power!plants,!but! they!also!have! significant! mobility! benefits! that! are! seldom! considered.! This! research! investigates! the! tremendous!growth!of!electric! two"wheelers! in!China!and! compares! their!environmental!and! safety! impacts! to! those! of! alternative! modes! of! transportation;! such! as! traditional! bicycles,! public!transportation,!or!personal!cars.!This!research!also!analyzes!the!benefits!of!electric!two" wheelers!in!terms!of!increased!mobility!and!accessibility!to!opportunities!due!to!their!increased! speed!and!range.!Electric! two"wheelers! tend! to!be!more!energy!efficient!and!produce! less!air! pollution!per!kilometer!traveled!than!many!other!modes.!Also,!to!the!extent!that!they!displace! car!trips,!they! improve!the!safety!of!the!transportation!system! in!Chinese!cities.!While!electric! two"wheelers!do!have!some!problems! that!need! to!be!addressed! (namely!excessive! lead!acid! battery! pollution),! they! provide! large! benefits! and! can! be! a! successful! strategy! toward! a! sustainable!transportation!future.! ! ! 1!INTRODUCTION! ! China’s!historically!dense!cities,!low!incomes!and!nearly!perfect!job"housing!balance!have!made! most!cities!very!walkable!and!bikable.!China’s!rapid!economic!growth!and!transition!to!a!market! economy!has!caused!an! increased!demand!for!travel! in!most!Chinese!cities.!Much!of!this!new! demand! is! met! by! various!motorized!modes,! particularly! public! transportation! and! personal! automobiles!for!those!who!can!afford!them.!Still,!a!very!high!proportion!of!trips!are!made!by!un" motorized! or! semi"motorized! modes.! One! mode! of! transportation! that! has! indigenously! developed! in!China! is! the!electric!bike.!Electric!bikes!provide!higher!mobility! and! range! than! traditional! bicycles! and! flexibility! that! cannot! be! found! with! public! transportation! modes.! Several!researchers!have!tracked!the!market!development!of!this!mode!(Chiu!and!Tzeng!1999;! Jamerson!and!Benjamin!2004;!Weinert,!Ma!et!al.!2006)!.!This!paper!will!present!research!results! from!a!study!aimed!at! investigating!the!main! impacts!electric!bikes!have!on!the!transportation! system,!particularly,!safety,!environmental!performance!and!mobility.!! ! Electric!bike!use!in!China!has!grown!tremendously!over!the!past!decade,!from!several!thousand! electric!bikes!sold! in!the! late!1990s!to!over!ten!million!sold! in!2005.!Electric!bikes!fall! into!two! categories! in!China,!bicycle!style!electric!bikes! (BSEB),!which!resemble! traditional!bicycles!and! scooter! style! electric! bikes! (SSEB),! which! resemble! scooters! (Figure! 1).! This! growth! rate! is! unparalleled!by!any!mode!in!China!and!most!cities!have!attempted!to!accommodate!this!mode! to!the!extent!possible.!Two!national!regulations!were!developed!to!classify!and!control!electric! bikes.! The! National! Road! Transportation! Law! classifies! electric! bikes! as! “bicycles”! that! can! operate!in!the!bicycle!lane!and!is!not!subject!to!laws!governing!other!motorized!modes,!such!as! license,! insurance! and! helmet! requirements.! The!General! Technical! Standards! limits! size! and! speed!so! that!electric!bikes!can!operate!safely! in! the!bicycle! lane.!These!standards!are!poorly! enforced!and!most!SSEBs!do!not!adhere!to!the!maximum!weight!or!speed!requirements!(China! Central!Government!1999;!China!Central!Government!2004).!A! recent!movement! among! the! industry!has!been!to!reclassify!electric!bikes!as!Light!Electric!Vehicles!(LEV),!which!will!give!them! more!latitude!to!develop!larger!and!faster!two!and!four!wheeled!vehicles!(Ni!2005).! ! ! Many!cities!are!facing!difficult!policy!decisions!related!to!electric!bike!regulation.!Several!cities,! including!Beijing,!Guangzhou!and!Fuzhou!have!or!are!attempting!electric!bike!bans.!Many!policy! makers!feel!that!electric!bikes!are!too!fast!to!safely!operate!in!the!bicycle!lane!and!too!slow!to! safely!operate!in!the!traffic!lane.!Electric!bikes!are!touted!as!environmentally!friendly!vehicles!by! Figure 1: Bicycle Style and Scooter Style Electric Bikes (image source: www.forever-bikes.com) proponents,!but!they!do!use!electricity!generated!coal!power!plants!and!they!also!operate!on! lead!acid!batteries,!introducing!large!amounts!of!lead!into!the!environment!through!production! and! disposal! processes.!While! electric! bikes! have! perceived! costs! in! terms! of! environmental! impacts!and!safety,! they!also!have!benefits! in! terms!of! increased!mobility!and!accessibility! to! goods!and!services!in!the!urban!area.!Moreover,!the!net!benefits!and!costs!of!electric!bikes!are! relative!to!the!mode!that!the!user!would!otherwise!use!if!electric!bikes!were!banned.!That!is,!if! an! electric! bike! user! would! otherwise! choose! a! car;! there! could! be! net! environmental! and! mobility! advantages! in! choosing! an! electric! bike! as! an! alternative.! If! they! would! otherwise! choose! a! bicycle,! then! electric! bike! use! could! result! in! net! environmental! advantages,! but! mobility!disadvantages.!! ! This! paper! will! investigate! some! of! these! effects! in! order! to! inform! the! development! of! sustainable! transportation!policy! in!Chinese!cities.!The! first!part!of! the!paper!will!discuss!user! characteristics!and!mode!choice!behavior!of!electric!bike!users!in!two!case!study!cities,!Shanghai! and! Kunming.! The! next! part! will! discuss! the! results! of! environmental! life! cycle! analysis! performed!on!electric!bikes,!public!buses,!and!bicycles.!Next,!potential! safety! impacts!will!be! investigated.!The! following!section!will!discuss! the!accessibility!gains! in!Kunming!compared! to! bus!and!bicycle.!The!final!section!will!discuss!the!overall!sustainability!implications!of!this!mode! and!suggest!appropriate!ways!to!develop!policy!related!to!electric!bikes.!! ! 2!ELECTRIC!BIKE!USER!CHARACTERISTICS! ! In!order!to!identify!the!environmental!and!social!impacts!of!electric!bike!use!and!regulation,!the! users!must!be! identified!and! characteristics!of! their! travel!behavior!and!potential!mode! shift! must! be! understood.! An! intercept! survey! of! electric! bike! and! traditional! bicycle! users! was! carried!out! in!two!cities! (Shanghai!and!Kunming)!that! identify!the! important!demographic!and! travel!factors!(Cherry!and!Cervero!2007).!In!Shanghai!and!Kunming,!electric!bike!users!take!more! trips!and!travel!farther!than!bicycle!users.!Interestingly,! in!Shanghai!and!Kunming,!over!50%!of! electric!bike!riders!state!that!they!would!switch!to!public!bus!for!their!trip!if!electric!bikes!were! not!available.! In!Shanghai!and!Kunming,!12%!and!21%!would!switch!to!bicycle,!respectively.!A! similar! study! in!Shijiazhuang! found!a!different!pattern,!over!60%!of!electric!bike!users!would! switch!to!bicycle!and!only!30%!would!switch!to!bus! (Weinert,!Ma!et!al.!2007).!This!difference! could!reflect!the!difference!in!bus!service!quality!between!the!cities.!In!all!three!cities,!bus!and! bicycle!dominate!as!alternative!modes,!so!any!analysis!should!compare!these!modes!together.!! ! 3!ENVIRONMENTAL!IMPACTS! ! Electric!bikes!are!extremely!efficient!and!emit!near!zero!emissions!at!the!point!of!use.!This!could! be!considered!a!positive!development!as!most!Chinese!cities!battle!poor!urban!air!quality!and! the!contribution!of!transportation!related!pollution! is!steadily! increasing.!Electric!bikes!do!use! electricity!and!most!of!China’s!electric!power!is!generated!by!coal!power!plants.!Moreover,!the! emission! rates! from! power! plants! is! highly! variable! across! China,! as! some! power! grids! rely! almost! exclusively! on! coal! power,! while! other! rely! heavily! on! hydro! power.! This! results! in! different!emission!rates!depending!on!where!electric!bikes!are!used.!Electric!bikes!also!use!lead! acid!batteries,!which!emit! lead! into!the!environment!through!various!production!processes.! In! order! to! identify! the!effects!of!electric!bike!use! in!China!on!energy!and! the!environment,! the! relative! effects! must! be! considered! between! modes.! Lifecycle! analyses! were! conducted! on! electric!bikes,!traditional!bicycles!and!buses!all!produced!and!operated! in!China.! Impacts!from! mining,!manufacturing,!use!and!disposal!are! included! in! the! following! sections.!The! following! analyses!are!excerpts!from!(Cherry,!Weinert!et!al.!2007)!and!represent!an!“average”!bus!(12m! Volvo"Sunwin),!bicycle,!SSEB!and!BSEB.!The!next!sub"sections!discuss!the!production!phase,!use! phase,!and!lead!pollution!of!the!three!modes.!! ! 3.1!Production!Phase! !! The!production!phase!includes!raw!material!extraction,!processing,!manufacturing!and!assembly.! Some!processes!were!omitted!for!which!there!was!no!reliable!data!or!that!were!too!minor!to! significantly!influence!the!results.!Energy!and!emission!intensities!(e.g.!kWh/kg!or!grams!PM/kg)! were! calculated! from! statistical!yearbooks!and! summed!across!all! components!of! the!vehicle! (National! Bureau! of! Statistics! 2003;! National! Bureau! of! Statistics! 2004;! National! Bureau! of! Statistics! 2005;! China! Data! Online! 2006).! Vehicle! material! inventories! were! derived! from! interviews! or! websites! of! vehicle! manufacturers.! The! energy! use! and! emissions! of! the! production!processes!are!reported!in!Table!1.!! ! ! Table!1:!Energy!Use!and!Emissions!of!Bus,!Bicycle,!and!Electric!Bike!!! Production!Phase!! ! Energy!Use! (kWh)! CO2eq! (Metric!Tonne)! SO2!! (kg)! PM! (kg) Bus! 278918! 69.77! 273.37! 1062.61! Bicycle 360! 0.09! 0.27! 1.17! BSEB! 1453! 0.60! 1.56! 5.82! SSEB! 2119! 0.87! 2.19! 8.16! !Production!Phases!include:!Mining,!Petroleum!Extraction,!Refining,!Manufacture!and! Assembly!of!raw!materials!that!make!up!the!physical!vehicle.!It!does!not!include!impacts!of! fuel!production!and!use!consumed!during!the!vehicle’s!use!phase! !PM!is!only!from!combustion!processes!and!does!not!include!PM!emissions!from!industrial! non"combustion!sources.! ! 3.2!Use!Phase!! ! The! three!modes! rely!on!different!motive!power! sources,!with!different! fuels.! Each!of! these! sources!has!different! energy! efficiencies! and!different!dominate!pollutants.!Buses!burn! fossil! fuels! in! internal!combustion!engines.!Electric!bikes!utilize!electricity! from!a!variety!of!sources,! including! hydropower,! fossil! fuel! generation,! and! some!nuclear! power.!China’s! energy!mix! is! approximately! 75%! coal,! 8%! gas,! 15%! hydro! power! and! 2%! nuclear.! The! energy! mix! varies! significantly!by!region!(Zhu,!Zheng!et!al.!2005),!which!in!turn!affects!the!emission!rates.!!Bicycles! are! human! powered! and! the! energy! required! to! propel! a! bicycle! is! derived! from! food! consumption.!However,! it! is!unclear! if!bicyclists!consume!proportionally!more! food! than!non" bicyclists!(Ulrich!2006).!Bicyclists!are!generally!thinner,! indicating!that!they!burn!more!calories! bicycling! than! they! consume! specifically! for! bicycling! (Bell,! Ge! et! al.! 2002).! Table! 2! shows! emission!rates!and!energy!use!during!the!use!phase!of!the!vehicle!lifecycle.!! ! ! Table!2:!Energy!Use!and!Emissions!of!Bus,!Bicycle,!and!Electric!Bike! Use!Phase!! ! Energy! Use! (kWh)! CO2eq! (Metric! Tonne)! SO2! (kg)! PM! (kg)! CO (kg)! HC (kg)! NOX c! (kg)! Pb (kg)! Bus! 6252503! 2352! 520! 2196! 7973! 728! 13513! 248.18! Bicycle 615! 0.00! 0.00! 0.00! 0.00! 0.00! 0.00! 0.00! BSEB! 661! 0.51! 4.61! 0.44! Unkn! Unkn! Unkn! 35.50! SSEB! 859! 0.66! 5.99! 0.58! Unkn! Unkn! Unkn! 50.67! !The!use!phase!includes!fuel!extraction,!processing!and!combustion!either!through!internal!combustion! engines!(bus)!or!power!plant!electricity!generation!(e"bike).!! !The!impacts!of!a!vehicle!during!the!use!phase!are!directly!related!to!the!assumed!lifespan!of!the! vehicle,!informed!by!interviews!with!manufacturers.!The!assumed!lifespans!are!as!follows:!Bus" 1,000,000!km,!Electric!Bike"50,000!km,!Bicycle"20,000!km! !The!author!found!no!data!related!to!CO,!HC,!and!NOx!emission!factors!for!electricity!generation!in! China! !Pb!(Lead)!pollution!is!considered!under!the!“use”!phase!because!batteries!are!used!as!a!type!of!“fuel”! for!electric!bikes!and!battery!life!is!significantly!influenced!by!use.!Bus!batteries!are!included!for! comparison!purposes!and!all!Lead!is!emitted!during!the!production,!recycling,!and!disposal!phases.!This! is!discussed!more!in!the!following!section.! !Bicycle!impacts!are!largely!zero!during!the!use!phase!and!do!not!consider!the!energy!and!emissions! required!by!the!production!of!food.!Energy!use!here!reports!the!total!energy!required!to!pedal!a!bicycle! for!the!total!lifespan!of!the!bicycle.!! Emissions!from!electric!bikes!are!related!to!energy!mix!in!the!power!grid!in!which!a!city!is!located.!The! emissions!presented!here!represent!all!of!China’s!average!energy!mix,!but!some!cities’!electricity!is! almost!exclusively!coal!generate,!while!others!rely!heavily!on!hydropower ! The! environmental! impact! of! each! mode! is! very! different,! due! to! differences! in! fuel! and! propulsion!technologies.!The!use!phase!constitutes!about!95%!of!energy!use!for!buses,!65%!for! bicycles!and!30%! for!electric!bikes.!This! is!partially!due! to!the! low!useable! lifespan!of!bicycles! and!electric!bikes.!In!general,!most!of!the!impacts!of!buses!occur!during!the!use!phase,!most!of! the! impacts! of! bicycles! and! electric! bikes! occur! during! the! production! phase.! One! notable! exception!is!the!SO2!emissions!from!electricity!generation.!!! ! 3.3!Lead!Pollution! ! Lead! pollution! is! the!most! problematic! environmental! problem!with! electric! bikes.! They! use! approximately!one!battery!set!every!10,000!kilometers.!Lead! is!emitted! into! the!environment! through!mining!and!smelting!(Phase!I),!battery!manufacturing!(Phase!II),!recycling!and!disposal! processes! (Phase! III).! (Mao,! Lu! et! al.! 2006)! found! that! high! levels! of! lead! are! lost! to! the! environment!through!all!of!these!processes!and!even!if!China!could!achieve!100%!recycling!rates! of! lead!acid!batteries,!up! to!30%!of! the! lead!would!be!emitted! into! the!environment!as!solid,! water,!or!airborne!waste.!Often!these!emission!sources!are!in!rural!or!industrial!areas.!This!lead! will!eventually!impact!human!systems!and!cause!developmental!disorders!associated!with!lead! poisoning.!It!is!important!to!note!that!these!are!not!tailpipe!emission.!Lead!loss!rates!from!each! process!and!various!recycling!scenarios!are!presented!in!Table!3.!! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! During! the!production!phase! (Phase! I),! the! lead!emissions!are!related! to! the!amount!of!virgin! material!from!which!a!battery!is!produced.!Even!if!100%!of!batteries!were!recycled,!this!would! only!account! for!60%!of! future! lead!demand!because!of!market!growth!and! lead! losses.!The! official!proportion!of!batteries!recycled!is!31%,!which!constitute!22%!of!the!total!input!into!new! batteries.! It! is! conceivable! that! up! to! 62%! of! batteries! are! recycled! through! informal,! unregulated!operations,!which!would!increase!the!composition!of!new!batteries!to!44%!recycled! material! (Mao,!Lu!et!al.!2006).! If!batteries!have!a!100%! recycling! rate,!about!60%!of! the! lead! demand! would! be! met! and! the! other! 40%! would! come! from! virgin! material.! Scenarios! A"E! calculate!the!emission!of!lead!using!different!recycling!rates.!The!most!realistic!case!is!Scenario! C,!where!62%!of!all!batteries!are!recycled;!resulting!in!44%!recycled!lead!in!new!batteries!and!66%! originating!from!virgin!sources.!Under!this!scenario,!lead!is!emitted!into!the!environment!that!is! equivalent! to!69%!of! the!battery’s! lead!content,!so!a!battery!with!10!kilograms!of! lead!would! represent!6.9!kilograms!of!lead!pollution.!! ! ! ! TABLE!3:!Lead!Emissions! ! ! Bus! Bicycle! BSEB! SSEB! ! Battery!Weight!(lead!content)!kg! 90! 0! 10.3! 14.7! I! Lead!Production!Loss!!!! (%!Recycled!Material)! ! ! ! ! 0% 28.08! ! 3.21! 4.59! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!22% 25.80! ! 2.95! 4.21! 44% 23.53! ! 2.69! 3.84! 60% 21.87! ! 2.50! 3.57! II! Manufacture!Loss!!! ! ! ! ! 4.8% 4.32! ! 0.49! 0.71! III! End"Of"Life!Loss!!!!!!!!!!!! (Recycling!Rate)! ! ! ! ! 0% 90.00! ! 10.30! 14.70! 31% 62.10! ! 7.11! 10.14! !!62% 34.20! ! 3.91! 5.59! 85% 13.50! ! 1.55! 2.21! 100% 0.00! ! 0.00! 0.00!